Oscars Gone Wrong!

On the other side of the coin we have Awards Daily's contest to see who can not predict the winners, the best. http://www.awardsdaily.com/Contests/oscarswrong.php

Best Picture: A Serious Man CORRECT
Best Director: Jason Reitman CORRECT
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman CORRECT
Best Actress: Helen Mirren CORRECT
Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci CORRECT
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz CORRECT
Best Adapted Screenplay: In the Loop CORRECT
Best Original Screenplay: The Messenger CORRECT
Best Animated Film: The Princess and the Frog CORRECT
Best Documentary Film: Burma VJ CORRECT
Best Foreign Language Film: Ajami CORRECT
Best Art Direction: Sherlock Holmes CORRECT
Best Cinematography: Harry Potter CORRECT
Best Costume Design: Nine CORRECT
Best Film Editing: District 9 CORRECT
Best Makeup: Il Divo CORRECT
Best Original Score: Sherlock Holmes CORRECT
Best Original Song: "Loin de Paname CORRECT
Best Sound Editing: Inglourious Basterds CORRECT
Best Sound Mixing: Inglourious Basterds CORRECT
Best Visual Effects: Star Trek CORRECT
Best Short Film (Animated): French Roast CORRECT
Best Short Film (Documentary): Rabbit a la Berlin CORRECT
Best Short Film (Live Action): The Door CORRECT

If I don't lose all of these, I'll be pissed. Love it.

Final Oscar Predictions

Nary an hour before the journey begins...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker CORRECT

I'll go with a telling statistic here: no movie has won best picture without a screenplay or acting nomination since the 30s (or something like that). My gut is that the predictable Oscar season will continue.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker CORRECT

Locked up

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart CORRECT

Locked up

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side CORRECT

Another statistic, thanks to Scott Feinberg: no woman has won the Oscar after losing the Golden Globe and the SAG (bye bye Mirren, Sidibe, and Mulligan) and then only 4 women have won the Oscar after losing the SAG and winning a Golden Globe. Knowledge!

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds CORRECT

Locked up

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious CORRECT

Beyond locked up

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air WRONG

Gotta win something.

Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds WRONG

Basically a coin flip. Tarantino is more wordy while the Academy might be ready to give The Hurt Locker a sweep. Game time decision. Maybe they've gotta give Tarantino something, right?

Best Animated Film: Up CORRECT

Despite my love for the Fox.

Best Documentary Film: The Cove CORRECT

Don't kill dolphins!

Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon WRONG

Another toss up. Secret in Their Eyes apparently had the better Academy screening while The White Ribbon does have a cinematography trump nomination. And on top of it all, A Prophet has momentum from BAFTA. Another game time decision. I'll go with the previous cinematography win for The White Ribbon as indicative of consensus here.

Best Art Direction: Avatar CORRECT

Locksies

Best Cinematography: Avatar CORRECT

Consensus would say the 2 billion dollar movie will take it but once again, never underestimate the Academy's sweep giving tendencies.

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria CORRECT

Period predictability!

Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker CORRECT

Fairly certain here. Avatar could steal but The Hurt Locker oozes edited suspense.

Best Makeup: Star Trek CORRECT

Yeah I guess?

Best Original Score: Up CORRECT

The guy from Lost gets his due!

Best Original Song: "The Weary Kind" Bingham and Burnett CORRECT

Oh I miss the days when T-Bone Streep patrolled the awards podium.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar WRONG

I'd be smarter to double down here rather than trying to guess right for either one but whatevs. Noise wins this category.

Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker CORRECT

Apparently, the subtlety of The Hurt Locker wins here? Sure.

Best Visual Effects: Avatar CORRECT

Natch

Best Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death WRONG

Wallace and Gromitttttt!

Best Short Film (Documentary): The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant WRONG

This one is all over the place. We've got the time relevant one against a couple of weepies. I have no idea. Going with consensus so I'll look like a fool along with everyone else.

Best Short Film (Live Action): Instead of Abracadabra WRONG

Another one I don't know about. This one's got quirkiness which could win for once. Wouldn't be surprised if Miracle Fish or The New Tenants won though.

17 out of 24. Meh.

Nomination Morning

My first thoughts:

-THE BLIND SIDE!?!?! WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THIS WORLD!!!
-Hooray In the Loop!
-How did Penelope Cruz stay in for the same role she won last year?
-They really must like Crazy Heart, Maggie Gyllenhaal in for the steal
-No surprises at all in best actor, actress, and supporting actor. I was sure something would shake up. Same thing with director and best picture (with the exception of the Academy finally not falling for the baity Invictus. Instead they chose the movie with Tim McGraw. Wise.
-The Messenger is the surprise in original screenplay. But awesome that Avatar got snubbed. Also interesting that they obviously loved the film but not enough for Samantha Morton to pull through suggesting maybe a greater love for Crazy Heart? (then shouldn't it have showed up in screenplay? the system confuses me)
-Surprised that Australia got snubbed in Foreign Language. Bummed that Bulgaria missed out.
-What was the surprise in animation? Something got snubbed, right? The Secret of Kells? What is that?

I ended up 38/45 with my predictions, starkly better than last year's 31/40 though I think I did worse this year because there were more surprises last year and I could have easily gone with consensus and emerged victorious. If had gone with expected Renner, Mirren, and Cruz I would have been 41/45. Oh well.

So I was right. Most of the expected ones made it meaning next year I'll go with consensus picks and get fucked over again. Vicious cycle.

Oscar Nomination Predictions

I suppose this was my initial reason for this faux diary. Oh well.

It seems like I'm always far too close to the race to make predictions about nominations. Surely The Dark Knight would be nominated for best picture! It got all the guild nominations! In my only use of the word ever, Fail! This year is even more uncertain because there is actual doubt about the race. What?!?! I know. Shocking. Though I'm more inclined right now to make outright winner predictions, I'll restrain myself and make rushed predictions intentionally throwing curveballs just so I can kick myself for the next year when all the expected nominations come to fruition.

Best Picture
1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up in the Air
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education
7. Up
8. Invictus
9. District 9
10. A Serious Man

Not too daring here. I'll believe everyone else in saying Nine is dead. And I refuse to believe that that many people will like Crazy Heart or The Last Station enough to take that 10 slot. And even though the Academy loves the Coens, I haven't been hearing anything lately about A Serious Man so I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't show up. As for other possibilities, I suppose both Streep movies could come into play as well as The Hangover (please no) and Star Trek (which I thought would be more mainstream for the Academy to love then the allegorical tale from Blomkamp).

Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Quentin Tarantino
4. Jason Reitman
5. Lee Daniels

I feel like this one is ripe for the surprise. Daniels has been holding steady despite the doubters but there's a reason Spike Lee has never been nominated: the Academy is white. Apparently Neill Blomkamp is in the 6 slot poised to take over? Not sure about that but I feel like Eastwood is most ripe to seize the day despite Gran Torino's supposed snub last year and Clint's seemingly cooled off fervor among the Academy members (how many times am I going to say 'the Academy'?).

Best Actor
1. Jeff Daniels
2. George Clooney
3. Colin Firth
4. Morgan Freeman
5. Viggo Mortenson

Viiiiggo! He's done the sneaking in thing before and I feel like he would get more first place votes than Jeremy Renner. Though the movie isn't loved, the consensus was that the acting was incredible whereas Anthony Mackie's complete absence from this race suggests that the Academy (!) doesn't seem to jumping on the individual performances from The Hurt Locker. I also have a good feeling I'm wrong here but fuck it!

Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep
2. Sandra Bullock
3. Carey Mulligan
4. Gabourey Sidibe
5. Emily Blunt

Why Blunt over Mirren? I have no fucking idea. She should've been out of the game months ago, right? She's hot and the Academy is horny. Done.

Supporting Actor
1. Christoph Waltz
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Matt Damon
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5.Christopher Plummer

I'm super unsure on this one. Some are saying Plummer is a lock while others have counted him out for months. I don't know. I suppose it depends on how loved The Last Station is. If so, Mirren is also a lock and it probably breaks through in BP as well. The top 3 seem like locks and Tucci keeps showing up despite the HATE for The Lovely Bones. Other possibilities? Christian McKay (fingers crossed), Alfred Molina (deserving I'd say), and Alec Baldwin (huh?).

Supporting Actress
1. Monique (fuck if I spell her name right)
2. Anna Kendrick
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Julianne Moore
5. Samantha Morton

Boy oh boy. This one should be the most surprising. Everyone says Morton is in because she usually sneaks in. Well how is she sneaking in when you're predicting her? The girls of Nine seem to be dead and I don't think Cotillard has enough support to overturn category fraud. So then, we have the ladies of Inglourious Basterds wh, while deserving, seem like they could cancel each other out. I will say my one alternate is Diane Kruger though. I'll stick with Morton but I'm pretty sure either her ot Moore will get aufed. And, hell, Sigourney fucking Weaver could sneak in for all I know.

Original Screenplay
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Up
3. The Hurt Locker
4. A Serious Man
5. (500) Days of Summer

Avatar seems like the consensus to take the five spot. I really think (500) Days has the staying power here (based on past quirky nominations) which could once again get A Serious Man the shaft. Perhaps. But surely, surely, there's enough voters out there who realize the utter shit that is the Avatar screenplay. Right?

Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. An Education
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. District 9

I don't care at this point. Too tired. Slots 4 and 5 are up for grabs and I'm going with past nominee Wes Anderson and apparent late runner in the game Neil Blomkamp. While I would support this nomination, it seems like voters like the story more than the screenplay itself. Should there be a difference? Other possibilities? Julia and Julia (more likely) and...

Ok so that's wasn't very revelatory. I lied. I really am too close to the game. The Reader came out of nowhere last year. So did In Bruges, Melissa Leo, Michael Shannon, Amy Adams...who will it be this year?

Bon-jour-no

2009 Marlon Welles Awards Nominee:

Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress: Melanie Laurent's vengeful Shoshana
Best Supporting Actor: Christophe Waltz's gleeful Hans Landa
Best Original Screenplay
The Real Deal
Best Line: "Say auf wiedersehen to your Nazi balls!"
Best Comedic Performance: Aldo Raine.
Best Scene Stealer: Til Schweiger as the sociopath Hugo Stiglitz
Most Surprising Moment: the flashback on Stiglitz's path to becoming a basterd
Best Trailer
Best "Best Moment of the Film": Hans Landa's introduction to the three Italians

Fuck You, You Whore

2009 Marlon Welles Awards Nominee:

Best Picture
Best Actor: Joseph Gordon-Levitt's soul crushing performance
Best Original Screenplay: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
The Real Deal
Best Line: "This belief stemmed from early exposure to sad British pop music and a total mis-reading of the movie 'The Graduate'. "
Best Montage: Tom gets his life together set to Wolfmother's "Vagabond"
Most Ridiculous Moment: Han Solo winks
Most Innovative Moment: Tie: Putting Tom inside the movies he's watching AND Split screen of Tom's expectations and reality
Best Opening Credits: Baby pictures set to Regina's "Us"
Best Music
Best Use of a Song: Making "You Make My Dreams" relevant again
Best Trailer
Best Use of a Song in the Trailer: Tie: Regina's "Us" AND Wolfmother's "Vagabond"
Best "Best Moment of the Film": Tom and Summer's joy ride through IKEA set to "There Goes the Fear" from the Doves

The Courage of Your Convictions

Julie and Julia

I hate people that pigeonhole a movie into a certain audience. I think there have many such complaints with the release of Julie and Julia recently because people realized that it was actually, you know- a good movie. I went into the theater alone, probably the youngest male inside (mildly surprised at how many people had come to a 4:05 Monday showing) and hightailed it for one of the back rows so nobody could see how embarrassing it was for a teenage male to be sitting alone in a movie classified by mainstream audiences as a "chick flick." True this sort of pigeonholing would ordinarily deter me from seeing such a movie but, damn it, Meryl Streep rocks! And the trailer actually had me excited for the film so fuck it all!

And I liked it (of course). Nora Ephron managed to hold my attention through You've Got Mail so no surprises considering the movie was actually supposed to be good. Meryl Streep is obviously wonderful but I was much more interested in the storyline of Amy Adams' Julie. I know Streep is more entertaining but her storyline lacks a hook for me to grab on. I understand that the drama with her stems from her seemingly futile attempts to get her cookbook published. However, we know that she eventually will since Julie Powell is reading from it in the future. Julie, on the other hand, is stuck in her dead end job, with shallow dead beat friends and finds solace in cooking but also the people that support her blog.

I was very interested in the argument that Julie and her husband have about halfway through the film. She has become completely immersed in her blog and in the emotions of hundreds of people she has never met. Amy Adams plays this moment off subtly but her final admission that she cannot be as good a person as Julia Child is quite riveting and makes you feel rather sympathetic to a character that doesn't charm quite as much as the icon she looks up to. And Chris Messima is supportive and subtle in his best Paul Rudd impersonation. I understand that Streep is remarkable in her role but, from what I have read in reviews, people insist that a movie just about her would have been better. Honestly, two hours of just Julia Child (especially when there doesn't seem to be any real drama with her) would make me go crazy. Her discovery and journey of cooking just isn't as interesting to me as the one Julie Powell takes. Maybe the performances are vastly different in quality but from a plot standpoint, I wanted Julie to succeed and cheered for her when she realized the only Julia Child she needs to worry about is the one in her head.

Grade: B

2009 Marlon Welles Awards Nominee:

Best Actress: Amy Adam's subtly
Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep's effusiveness
Best Adapted Screenplay: Nora Ephron and her seemlessly fractured narrative
Best Scene Stealer: Jane Lynch, who I'm convinced should play Big Bird in a biopic