My first thoughts:
-THE BLIND SIDE!?!?! WHAT THE FUCK IS WRONG WITH THIS WORLD!!!
-Hooray In the Loop!
-How did Penelope Cruz stay in for the same role she won last year?
-They really must like Crazy Heart, Maggie Gyllenhaal in for the steal
-No surprises at all in best actor, actress, and supporting actor. I was sure something would shake up. Same thing with director and best picture (with the exception of the Academy finally not falling for the baity Invictus. Instead they chose the movie with Tim McGraw. Wise.
-The Messenger is the surprise in original screenplay. But awesome that Avatar got snubbed. Also interesting that they obviously loved the film but not enough for Samantha Morton to pull through suggesting maybe a greater love for Crazy Heart? (then shouldn't it have showed up in screenplay? the system confuses me)
-Surprised that Australia got snubbed in Foreign Language. Bummed that Bulgaria missed out.
-What was the surprise in animation? Something got snubbed, right? The Secret of Kells? What is that?
I ended up 38/45 with my predictions, starkly better than last year's 31/40 though I think I did worse this year because there were more surprises last year and I could have easily gone with consensus and emerged victorious. If had gone with expected Renner, Mirren, and Cruz I would have been 41/45. Oh well.
So I was right. Most of the expected ones made it meaning next year I'll go with consensus picks and get fucked over again. Vicious cycle.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Monday, February 1, 2010
Oscar Nomination Predictions
I suppose this was my initial reason for this faux diary. Oh well.
It seems like I'm always far too close to the race to make predictions about nominations. Surely The Dark Knight would be nominated for best picture! It got all the guild nominations! In my only use of the word ever, Fail! This year is even more uncertain because there is actual doubt about the race. What?!?! I know. Shocking. Though I'm more inclined right now to make outright winner predictions, I'll restrain myself and make rushed predictions intentionally throwing curveballs just so I can kick myself for the next year when all the expected nominations come to fruition.
Best Picture
1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up in the Air
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education
7. Up
8. Invictus
9. District 9
10. A Serious Man
Not too daring here. I'll believe everyone else in saying Nine is dead. And I refuse to believe that that many people will like Crazy Heart or The Last Station enough to take that 10 slot. And even though the Academy loves the Coens, I haven't been hearing anything lately about A Serious Man so I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't show up. As for other possibilities, I suppose both Streep movies could come into play as well as The Hangover (please no) and Star Trek (which I thought would be more mainstream for the Academy to love then the allegorical tale from Blomkamp).
Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Quentin Tarantino
4. Jason Reitman
5. Lee Daniels
I feel like this one is ripe for the surprise. Daniels has been holding steady despite the doubters but there's a reason Spike Lee has never been nominated: the Academy is white. Apparently Neill Blomkamp is in the 6 slot poised to take over? Not sure about that but I feel like Eastwood is most ripe to seize the day despite Gran Torino's supposed snub last year and Clint's seemingly cooled off fervor among the Academy members (how many times am I going to say 'the Academy'?).
Best Actor
1. Jeff Daniels
2. George Clooney
3. Colin Firth
4. Morgan Freeman
5. Viggo Mortenson
Viiiiggo! He's done the sneaking in thing before and I feel like he would get more first place votes than Jeremy Renner. Though the movie isn't loved, the consensus was that the acting was incredible whereas Anthony Mackie's complete absence from this race suggests that the Academy (!) doesn't seem to jumping on the individual performances from The Hurt Locker. I also have a good feeling I'm wrong here but fuck it!
Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep
2. Sandra Bullock
3. Carey Mulligan
4. Gabourey Sidibe
5. Emily Blunt
Why Blunt over Mirren? I have no fucking idea. She should've been out of the game months ago, right? She's hot and the Academy is horny. Done.
Supporting Actor
1. Christoph Waltz
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Matt Damon
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5.Christopher Plummer
I'm super unsure on this one. Some are saying Plummer is a lock while others have counted him out for months. I don't know. I suppose it depends on how loved The Last Station is. If so, Mirren is also a lock and it probably breaks through in BP as well. The top 3 seem like locks and Tucci keeps showing up despite the HATE for The Lovely Bones. Other possibilities? Christian McKay (fingers crossed), Alfred Molina (deserving I'd say), and Alec Baldwin (huh?).
Supporting Actress
1. Monique (fuck if I spell her name right)
2. Anna Kendrick
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Julianne Moore
5. Samantha Morton
Boy oh boy. This one should be the most surprising. Everyone says Morton is in because she usually sneaks in. Well how is she sneaking in when you're predicting her? The girls of Nine seem to be dead and I don't think Cotillard has enough support to overturn category fraud. So then, we have the ladies of Inglourious Basterds wh, while deserving, seem like they could cancel each other out. I will say my one alternate is Diane Kruger though. I'll stick with Morton but I'm pretty sure either her ot Moore will get aufed. And, hell, Sigourney fucking Weaver could sneak in for all I know.
Original Screenplay
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Up
3. The Hurt Locker
4. A Serious Man
5. (500) Days of Summer
Avatar seems like the consensus to take the five spot. I really think (500) Days has the staying power here (based on past quirky nominations) which could once again get A Serious Man the shaft. Perhaps. But surely, surely, there's enough voters out there who realize the utter shit that is the Avatar screenplay. Right?
Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. An Education
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. District 9
I don't care at this point. Too tired. Slots 4 and 5 are up for grabs and I'm going with past nominee Wes Anderson and apparent late runner in the game Neil Blomkamp. While I would support this nomination, it seems like voters like the story more than the screenplay itself. Should there be a difference? Other possibilities? Julia and Julia (more likely) and...
Ok so that's wasn't very revelatory. I lied. I really am too close to the game. The Reader came out of nowhere last year. So did In Bruges, Melissa Leo, Michael Shannon, Amy Adams...who will it be this year?
It seems like I'm always far too close to the race to make predictions about nominations. Surely The Dark Knight would be nominated for best picture! It got all the guild nominations! In my only use of the word ever, Fail! This year is even more uncertain because there is actual doubt about the race. What?!?! I know. Shocking. Though I'm more inclined right now to make outright winner predictions, I'll restrain myself and make rushed predictions intentionally throwing curveballs just so I can kick myself for the next year when all the expected nominations come to fruition.
Best Picture
1. Avatar
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Up in the Air
4. Inglourious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education
7. Up
8. Invictus
9. District 9
10. A Serious Man
Not too daring here. I'll believe everyone else in saying Nine is dead. And I refuse to believe that that many people will like Crazy Heart or The Last Station enough to take that 10 slot. And even though the Academy loves the Coens, I haven't been hearing anything lately about A Serious Man so I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't show up. As for other possibilities, I suppose both Streep movies could come into play as well as The Hangover (please no) and Star Trek (which I thought would be more mainstream for the Academy to love then the allegorical tale from Blomkamp).
Best Director
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Quentin Tarantino
4. Jason Reitman
5. Lee Daniels
I feel like this one is ripe for the surprise. Daniels has been holding steady despite the doubters but there's a reason Spike Lee has never been nominated: the Academy is white. Apparently Neill Blomkamp is in the 6 slot poised to take over? Not sure about that but I feel like Eastwood is most ripe to seize the day despite Gran Torino's supposed snub last year and Clint's seemingly cooled off fervor among the Academy members (how many times am I going to say 'the Academy'?).
Best Actor
1. Jeff Daniels
2. George Clooney
3. Colin Firth
4. Morgan Freeman
5. Viggo Mortenson
Viiiiggo! He's done the sneaking in thing before and I feel like he would get more first place votes than Jeremy Renner. Though the movie isn't loved, the consensus was that the acting was incredible whereas Anthony Mackie's complete absence from this race suggests that the Academy (!) doesn't seem to jumping on the individual performances from The Hurt Locker. I also have a good feeling I'm wrong here but fuck it!
Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep
2. Sandra Bullock
3. Carey Mulligan
4. Gabourey Sidibe
5. Emily Blunt
Why Blunt over Mirren? I have no fucking idea. She should've been out of the game months ago, right? She's hot and the Academy is horny. Done.
Supporting Actor
1. Christoph Waltz
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Matt Damon
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5.Christopher Plummer
I'm super unsure on this one. Some are saying Plummer is a lock while others have counted him out for months. I don't know. I suppose it depends on how loved The Last Station is. If so, Mirren is also a lock and it probably breaks through in BP as well. The top 3 seem like locks and Tucci keeps showing up despite the HATE for The Lovely Bones. Other possibilities? Christian McKay (fingers crossed), Alfred Molina (deserving I'd say), and Alec Baldwin (huh?).
Supporting Actress
1. Monique (fuck if I spell her name right)
2. Anna Kendrick
3. Vera Farmiga
4. Julianne Moore
5. Samantha Morton
Boy oh boy. This one should be the most surprising. Everyone says Morton is in because she usually sneaks in. Well how is she sneaking in when you're predicting her? The girls of Nine seem to be dead and I don't think Cotillard has enough support to overturn category fraud. So then, we have the ladies of Inglourious Basterds wh, while deserving, seem like they could cancel each other out. I will say my one alternate is Diane Kruger though. I'll stick with Morton but I'm pretty sure either her ot Moore will get aufed. And, hell, Sigourney fucking Weaver could sneak in for all I know.
Original Screenplay
1. Inglourious Basterds
2. Up
3. The Hurt Locker
4. A Serious Man
5. (500) Days of Summer
Avatar seems like the consensus to take the five spot. I really think (500) Days has the staying power here (based on past quirky nominations) which could once again get A Serious Man the shaft. Perhaps. But surely, surely, there's enough voters out there who realize the utter shit that is the Avatar screenplay. Right?
Adapted Screenplay
1. Up in the Air
2. Precious
3. An Education
4. Fantastic Mr. Fox
5. District 9
I don't care at this point. Too tired. Slots 4 and 5 are up for grabs and I'm going with past nominee Wes Anderson and apparent late runner in the game Neil Blomkamp. While I would support this nomination, it seems like voters like the story more than the screenplay itself. Should there be a difference? Other possibilities? Julia and Julia (more likely) and...
Ok so that's wasn't very revelatory. I lied. I really am too close to the game. The Reader came out of nowhere last year. So did In Bruges, Melissa Leo, Michael Shannon, Amy Adams...who will it be this year?
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